Using paleontological data spanning 1.45 million years, historical records from place names, and monitoring data from 1964 to 2020, the authors analyse population trends and change of the ground squirrel’s distribution range in Hungary primarily but the findings can be extended to the Pannonian Ecoregion as well in terms of long term trends. Statistical modelling, including two times interrupted ARIMA and Bayesian structural time series models, is employed to forecast future population numbers and identify breakpoints in the population history. The study identifies significant, about 10 percent annual population declines prior to agricultural changes in the 1960s and after that a more dramatic decline until nowadays. The study also explores the impact of conservation interventions, such as legal protection and translocation programs. The results suggest a potential positive effect from recent conservation translocations but highlight ongoing uncertainty regarding the species’ long-term future.

The original article can be freely available at the link below:
Cserkész T, Váczi O, Takáts T, Pazonyi P, Mikesy G, Brevik E C, Nagy L, Csathó A I, Németh A, Szitta T, Kiss Cs, Laborczi A, Mészáros J, Gedeon Cs. 2025. Past and present existence of Spermophilus citellus in Hungary with a forecast of its population using time series models. Journal for Nature Conservation 84, 126836.